Sacramento Republic 1–1 Tulsa Roughnecks

Sacramento Republic

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tulsa Roughnecks

4/29/2018

USL Championship · Round 12Papa Murphy’s Park (Sacramento, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Sacramento Republic53%

×Draw24%

Tulsa Roughnecks24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sacramento RepublicExpected goals in this matchTulsa Roughnecks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.06

Sacramento Republic

1.71

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.06

Sacramento Republic creates 61% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 130 away

1.61

creates per match

1.19

0.93

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Sacramento Republic

1.61

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.19

allows per match

Sacramento Republic

0.93

Tulsa Roughnecks

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sacramento Republic+0.00on par

Tulsa Roughnecks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sacramento Republic ↓

Tulsa Roughnecks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sacramento Republic or draw

76%

Sacramento Republic or Tulsa Roughnecks

76%

Draw or Tulsa Roughnecks

47%

Winning margin

Sacramento Republic wins by 2+

29%

Tulsa Roughnecks wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sacramento Republic 1+ goals

82%

Sacramento Republic 2+ goals

51%

Sacramento Republic 3+ goals

24%

Tulsa Roughnecks 1+ goals

65%

Tulsa Roughnecks 2+ goals

29%

Tulsa Roughnecks 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sacramento Republic (draw refunded)

69%

Tulsa Roughnecks (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sacramento Republic at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.93 · 139 matches

Tulsa Roughnecks away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.81 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sacramento Republic attack 1.61 + Tulsa Roughnecks defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Tulsa Roughnecks attack 1.19 + Sacramento Republic defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sacramento Republic scores more

53%

level

24%

Tulsa Roughnecks scores more

24%

Sacramento Republic at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sacramento Republic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff