Sportivo Huracan 1–2 Tacuarembo: Result & Stats

Sportivo Huracan

FT

1 – 2

Tacuarembo

12/21/2011

Segunda División · Round 13Parque Pedro Alejandro Bossio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Sportivo Huracan44%

×Draw27%

Tacuarembo29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sportivo HuracanExpected goals in this matchTacuarembo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.03

Sportivo Huracan

1.34

Tacuarembo

1.03

Sportivo Huracan creates 30% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.13

creates per match

0.82

1.25

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Sportivo Huracan

1.13

Tacuarembo

0.82

allows per match

Sportivo Huracan

1.25

Tacuarembo

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sportivo Huracan+0.00on par

Tacuarembo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sportivo Huracan ↓

Tacuarembo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sportivo Huracan or draw

71%

Sportivo Huracan or Tacuarembo

73%

Draw or Tacuarembo

56%

Winning margin

Sportivo Huracan wins by 2+

20%

Tacuarembo wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sportivo Huracan 1+ goals

74%

Sportivo Huracan 2+ goals

39%

Sportivo Huracan 3+ goals

15%

Tacuarembo 1+ goals

64%

Tacuarembo 2+ goals

28%

Tacuarembo 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Sportivo Huracan (draw refunded)

60%

Tacuarembo (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sportivo Huracan at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Tacuarembo away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sportivo Huracan attack 1.13 + Tacuarembo defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Tacuarembo attack 0.82 + Sportivo Huracan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Sportivo Huracan scores more

44%

level

27%

Tacuarembo scores more

29%

Sportivo Huracan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Sportivo Huracan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff