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Saburtalo vs Telavi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Saburtalo
Saburtalo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Telavi
Telavi
3/2/2024Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 1David Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Saburtalo54%
×Draw25%
Telavi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saburtalo
1.63
Telavi
0.91

Saburtalo creates 79% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 100 away

creates per match

Saburtalo
1.67
Telavi
0.90

allows per match

Saburtalo
0.91
Telavi
1.58

finishing

Saburtalo+0.00on par
Telavi+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo ↓

Telavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Saburtalo or draw
79%
Saburtalo or Telavi
75%
Draw or Telavi
46%

Winning margin

Saburtalo wins by 2+
29%
Telavi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saburtalo 1+ goals
80%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
48%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
22%
Telavi 1+ goals
60%
Telavi 2+ goals
23%
Telavi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo (draw refunded)
72%
Telavi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.91 · 127 matches

Telavi away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.58 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo attack 1.67 + Telavi defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Telavi attack 0.90 + Saburtalo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Saburtalo scores more
54%
level
25%
Telavi scores more
21%

Saburtalo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saburtalo vs Telavi

Saburtalo beat Telavi 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at David Petriashvili Arena in Tbilisi.