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Saburtalo vs Samgurali — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Saburtalo
Saburtalo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Samgurali
Samgurali
11/23/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 34David Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Saburtalo51%
×Draw24%
Samgurali24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saburtalo
1.66
Samgurali
1.06

Saburtalo creates 57% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 102 away

creates per match

Saburtalo
1.67
Samgurali
1.22

allows per match

Saburtalo
0.91
Samgurali
1.65

finishing

Saburtalo+0.00on par
Samgurali+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo ↓

Samgurali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Saburtalo or draw
76%
Saburtalo or Samgurali
76%
Draw or Samgurali
49%

Winning margin

Saburtalo wins by 2+
27%
Samgurali wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Saburtalo 1+ goals
81%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
49%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
23%
Samgurali 1+ goals
65%
Samgurali 2+ goals
29%
Samgurali 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo (draw refunded)
68%
Samgurali (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.91 · 127 matches

Samgurali away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.65 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo attack 1.67 + Samgurali defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.66

Samgurali attack 1.22 + Saburtalo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saburtalo scores more
51%
level
24%
Samgurali scores more
24%

Saburtalo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Saburtalo 2–2 Samgurali

Saburtalo and Samgurali drew 2-2 in Erovnuli Liga on November 23, 2023.

The match was played at David Petriashvili Arena in Tbilisi.