Saburtalo 2–1 Samgurali: Result & Stats

Saburtalo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Samgurali

11/7/2023

David Kipiani Cup · Semi-finalsDavid Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Saburtalo35%

×Draw25%

Samgurali40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaburtaloExpected goals in this matchSamgurali

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.50

Saburtalo

1.39

Samgurali

1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.00

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Saburtalo

2.00

Samgurali

2.00

allows per match

Saburtalo

1.00

Samgurali

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saburtalo+0.00on par

Samgurali+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo ↓

Samgurali →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Saburtalo or draw

60%

Saburtalo or Samgurali

75%

Draw or Samgurali

65%

Winning margin

Saburtalo wins by 2+

16%

Samgurali wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Saburtalo 1+ goals

75%

Saburtalo 2+ goals

40%

Saburtalo 3+ goals

16%

Samgurali 1+ goals

78%

Samgurali 2+ goals

44%

Samgurali 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo (draw refunded)

47%

Samgurali (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Samgurali away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo attack 2.00 + Samgurali defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Samgurali attack 2.00 + Saburtalo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Saburtalo scores more

35%

level

25%

Samgurali scores more

40%

Samgurali at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff