Saburtalo 1–0 Dinamo Tbilisi: Result & Stats

Saburtalo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Dinamo Tbilisi

3/15/2024

Erovnuli Liga · Round 4David Petriashvili Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Saburtalo39%

×Draw26%

Dinamo Tbilisi34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaburtaloExpected goals in this matchDinamo Tbilisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.24

Saburtalo

1.35

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

1.67

creates per match

1.57

0.91

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Saburtalo

1.67

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.57

allows per match

Saburtalo

0.91

Dinamo Tbilisi

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saburtalo+0.00on par

Dinamo Tbilisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo ↓

Dinamo Tbilisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Saburtalo or draw

66%

Saburtalo or Dinamo Tbilisi

74%

Draw or Dinamo Tbilisi

61%

Winning margin

Saburtalo wins by 2+

18%

Dinamo Tbilisi wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Saburtalo 1+ goals

74%

Saburtalo 2+ goals

39%

Saburtalo 3+ goals

15%

Dinamo Tbilisi 1+ goals

71%

Dinamo Tbilisi 2+ goals

35%

Dinamo Tbilisi 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo (draw refunded)

53%

Dinamo Tbilisi (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.91 · 127 matches

Dinamo Tbilisi away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.03 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo attack 1.67 + Dinamo Tbilisi defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.35

Dinamo Tbilisi attack 1.57 + Saburtalo defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Saburtalo scores more

39%

level

26%

Dinamo Tbilisi scores more

34%

Saburtalo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff