Saburtalo 1–0 Dinamo Batumi: Result & Stats

Saburtalo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Dinamo Batumi

12/6/2023

David Kipiani Cup · FinalMikheil Meskhis sakhelobis Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Saburtalo36%

×Draw24%

Dinamo Batumi40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaburtaloExpected goals in this matchDinamo Batumi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.60

Saburtalo

1.50

Dinamo Batumi

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

2.21

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Saburtalo

2.00

Dinamo Batumi

2.21

allows per match

Saburtalo

1.00

Dinamo Batumi

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saburtalo+0.00on par

Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo ↓

Dinamo Batumi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Saburtalo or draw

60%

Saburtalo or Dinamo Batumi

76%

Draw or Dinamo Batumi

64%

Winning margin

Saburtalo wins by 2+

17%

Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Saburtalo 1+ goals

78%

Saburtalo 2+ goals

44%

Saburtalo 3+ goals

19%

Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals

80%

Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals

47%

Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo (draw refunded)

47%

Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo attack 2.00 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Dinamo Batumi attack 2.21 + Saburtalo defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Saburtalo scores more

36%

level

24%

Dinamo Batumi scores more

40%

Dinamo Batumi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff