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Saburtalo II vs Telavi — David Kipiani Cup 2020

Saburtalo II
Saburtalo II
Preview
13:00
Telavi
Telavi
7/26/2026David Kipiani CupDavid Kipiani Cup · Round of 32
45%
Telavi
model favours
30%24%45%

Telavi have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saburtalo II30%
×Draw24%
Telavi45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saburtalo II
1.29
Telavi
1.63

Telavi creates 26% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Saburtalo II
1.33
Telavi
1.25

allows per match

Saburtalo II
2.00
Telavi
1.25

finishing

Saburtalo II+0.00on par
Telavi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saburtalo II ↓

Telavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Saburtalo II or draw
55%
Saburtalo II or Telavi
76%
Draw or Telavi
70%

Winning margin

Saburtalo II wins by 2+
13%
Telavi wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Saburtalo II 1+ goals
72%
Saburtalo II 2+ goals
37%
Saburtalo II 3+ goals
14%
Telavi 1+ goals
80%
Telavi 2+ goals
48%
Telavi 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Saburtalo II (draw refunded)
40%
Telavi (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saburtalo II at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Telavi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saburtalo II attack 1.33 + Telavi defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.29

Telavi attack 1.25 + Saburtalo II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Saburtalo II scores more
30%
level
24%
Telavi scores more
45%

Telavi at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Telavi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Telavi are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Saburtalo II and Telavi have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
II
WWWLW
Telavi
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saburtalo II vs Telavi — Match Preview

Saburtalo II face Telavi on July 26, 2026 in this David Kipiani Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.