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Sabah FA vs Kapaz — Premyer Liqa 2019

Sabah FA
Sabah FA
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kapaz
Kapaz
2/17/2024Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 23Bank Respublika Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Sabah FA57%
×Draw23%
Kapaz20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sabah FA
1.79
Kapaz
0.94

Sabah FA creates 90% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 73 away

creates per match

Sabah FA
1.61
Kapaz
0.88

allows per match

Sabah FA
0.99
Kapaz
1.96

finishing

Sabah FA+0.00on par
Kapaz+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sabah FA ↓

Kapaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sabah FA or draw
80%
Sabah FA or Kapaz
77%
Draw or Kapaz
43%

Winning margin

Sabah FA wins by 2+
33%
Kapaz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sabah FA 1+ goals
83%
Sabah FA 2+ goals
53%
Sabah FA 3+ goals
26%
Kapaz 1+ goals
61%
Kapaz 2+ goals
24%
Kapaz 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sabah FA (draw refunded)
75%
Kapaz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sabah FA at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.99 · 108 matches

Kapaz away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.96 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sabah FA attack 1.61 + Kapaz defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.79

Kapaz attack 0.88 + Sabah FA defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Sabah FA scores more
57%
level
23%
Kapaz scores more
20%

Sabah FA at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Sabah FA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sabah FA vs Kapaz

Sabah FA beat Kapaz 3-2 in Premyer Liqa on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Bank Respublika Arena in Masazir.