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Ryazan W vs Zenit W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Ryazan W
Ryazan W
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit W
Zenit W
7/9/2021Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 15Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Ryazan W16%
×Draw24%
Zenit W61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ryazan W
0.73
Zenit W
1.70

Zenit W creates 133% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

creates per match

Ryazan W
0.95
Zenit W
2.01

allows per match

Ryazan W
1.39
Zenit W
0.51

finishing

Ryazan W+0.00on par
Zenit W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ryazan W ↓

Zenit W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ryazan W or draw
39%
Ryazan W or Zenit W
76%
Draw or Zenit W
84%

Winning margin

Ryazan W wins by 2+
4%
Zenit W wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Ryazan W 1+ goals
52%
Ryazan W 2+ goals
17%
Ryazan W 3+ goals
4%
Zenit W 1+ goals
82%
Zenit W 2+ goals
51%
Zenit W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ryazan W (draw refunded)
21%
Zenit W (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ryazan W at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.39 · 74 matches

Zenit W away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.51 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ryazan W attack 0.95 + Zenit W defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.73

Zenit W attack 2.01 + Ryazan W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ryazan W scores more
16%
level
24%
Zenit W scores more
61%

Zenit W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zenit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ryazan W vs Zenit W

Zenit W beat Ryazan W 1-0 in Supreme Division Women on July 9, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Ryazan'.