Rukh Vynnyky 2–1 Oleksandria: Result & Stats

Rukh Vynnyky

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oleksandria

B. Boychuk 54'

O. Prytula 52'

M. Tretyakov 15'

5/2/2021

Premier League · Round 24Arena L'viv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky32%

×Draw27%

Oleksandria41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rukh VynnykyExpected goals in this matchOleksandria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.31

Rukh Vynnyky

1.13

Oleksandria

1.31

Oleksandria creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

1.03

creates per match

1.23

1.39

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky

1.03

Oleksandria

1.23

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky

1.39

Oleksandria

1.22

+0.04on par

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky+0.04on par

Oleksandria-0.10scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky ↓

Oleksandria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky or draw

59%

Rukh Vynnyky or Oleksandria

73%

Draw or Oleksandria

68%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky wins by 2+

13%

Oleksandria wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky 1+ goals

68%

Rukh Vynnyky 2+ goals

31%

Rukh Vynnyky 3+ goals

11%

Oleksandria 1+ goals

73%

Oleksandria 2+ goals

38%

Oleksandria 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky (draw refunded)

44%

Oleksandria (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.39 · 15 matches

Oleksandria away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky attack 1.03 + Oleksandria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.13

Oleksandria attack 1.23 + Rukh Vynnyky defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rukh Vynnyky scores more

32%

level

27%

Oleksandria scores more

41%

Oleksandria at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Oleksandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

M. Tretyakov

32'

O. Prytula← A. Kukharuk

32'

Y. Martynyuk← R. Karasyuk

38'

Yaroslav Martyniuk

46'

B. Myshenko← P. Paşayev

52'

O. Prytula

54'

B. Boychuk

57'

O. Melnyk← V. Bondarenko

57'

D. Ustymenko← D. Shastal

67'

T. Stetskov← R. Vantukh

78'

I. Kalyuzhnyi← M. Tretyakov

85'

D. Zec← M. Bilyi

90+2'

V. Runich← B. Boychuk

Possession

Shots

Statistics

RukhOleksandria

Overview

48%Possession52%

6Total Shots7

0Corners1

18Fouls24

Shots

6Total Shots7

4On Target6

2Off Target1

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls24

1Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides3