Rukh Vynnyky U19 0–1 Obolon' Kyiv U19

Rukh Vynnyky U19

FT

0 – 1

Obolon' Kyiv U19

11/4/2023

U19 League · Round 13Stadion im. Bohdan Markevycha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Rukh Vynnyky U1955%

×Draw23%

Obolon' Kyiv U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rukh Vynnyky U19Expected goals in this matchObolon' Kyiv U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.12

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.87

Obolon' Kyiv U19

1.12

Rukh Vynnyky U19 creates 67% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

2.20

creates per match

0.84

1.40

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Rukh Vynnyky U19

2.20

Obolon' Kyiv U19

0.84

allows per match

Rukh Vynnyky U19

1.40

Obolon' Kyiv U19

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rukh Vynnyky U19+0.00on par

Obolon' Kyiv U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rukh Vynnyky U19 ↓

Obolon' Kyiv U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rukh Vynnyky U19 or draw

77%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 or Obolon' Kyiv U19

77%

Draw or Obolon' Kyiv U19

45%

Winning margin

Rukh Vynnyky U19 wins by 2+

31%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Rukh Vynnyky U19 1+ goals

85%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 2+ goals

56%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 3+ goals

29%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 1+ goals

67%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 2+ goals

31%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rukh Vynnyky U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rukh Vynnyky U19 at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

Obolon' Kyiv U19 away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.53 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rukh Vynnyky U19 attack 2.20 + Obolon' Kyiv U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.87

Obolon' Kyiv U19 attack 0.84 + Rukh Vynnyky U19 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Rukh Vynnyky U19 scores more

55%

level

23%

Obolon' Kyiv U19 scores more

23%

Rukh Vynnyky U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Rukh Vynnyky U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff