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Ruh Lviv vs Polessya — Premier League 2019

Ruh Lviv
Ruh Lviv
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Polessya
Polessya
2/25/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Arena Lviv

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Ruh Lviv23%
×Draw24%
Polessya53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ruh Lviv
1.01
Polessya
1.69

Polessya creates 67% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Ruh Lviv
0.91
Polessya
1.98

allows per match

Ruh Lviv
1.41
Polessya
1.10

finishing

Ruh Lviv+0.31scores more
Polessya-0.60scores less

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ruh Lviv ↓

Polessya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Ruh Lviv or draw
47%
Ruh Lviv or Polessya
76%
Draw or Polessya
77%

Winning margin

Ruh Lviv wins by 2+
8%
Polessya wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Ruh Lviv 1+ goals
64%
Ruh Lviv 2+ goals
27%
Ruh Lviv 3+ goals
8%
Polessya 1+ goals
82%
Polessya 2+ goals
50%
Polessya 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Ruh Lviv (draw refunded)
30%
Polessya (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ruh Lviv at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 9 matches

Polessya away — creates 1.98, concedes 1.10 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 + Polessya defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Polessya attack 1.98 + Ruh Lviv defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ruh Lviv scores more
23%
level
24%
Polessya scores more
53%

Polessya at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Polessya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Ruh Lviv 1–1 Polessya

Ruh Lviv and Polessya drew 1-1 in Premier League on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Arena Lviv in Lviv.