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Rudar vs Mladost Lješkopolje — Second League 2019

Rudar
Rudar
FT
5 – 2
HT: 4 – 1
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
S. Golubovic 90+2'
V. Pavlovic 33', 26'
O. Kasalica 20'
V. Popovic 6'
S. Gazivoda 65'
O. Batrovic 39'
10/6/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 11Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Rudar54%
×Draw24%
Mladost Lješkopolje22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar
1.72
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.01

Rudar creates 70% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 69 away

creates per match

Rudar
1.86
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.20

allows per match

Rudar
0.83
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.57

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par
Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rudar or draw
78%
Rudar or Mladost Lješkopolje
76%
Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje
46%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+
30%
Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals
82%
Rudar 2+ goals
51%
Rudar 3+ goals
25%
Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
64%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
27%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)
71%
Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.86 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.72

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Rudar defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rudar scores more
54%
level
24%
Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
22%

Rudar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
V. Popovic
20'
O. Kasalica
26'
V. Pavlovic
33'
V. Pavlovic
39'
O. Batrovic
41'
O. Batrovic
45+1'
S. Dukanovic
58'
S. Gazivoda← S. Gazivoda
58'
M. Krkotic← M. Krkotic
65'
S. Gazivoda
72'
V. Pavlovic
73'
Z. Kumburovic← Z. Kumburovic
76'
D. Kojasevic← N. Radevic
76'
V. Vucicevic← S. Golubovic
79'
P. Obadovic← P. Obadovic
81'
D. Becic← D. Becic
85'
D. Ajkovic← D. Ajkovic
90'
B. Radanovic
90+2'
S. Golubovic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar vs Mladost Lješkopolje

Rudar beat Mladost Lješkopolje 5-2 in Second League on October 6, 2024.

Goals: V. Popovic (6'), O. Kasalica (20'), V. Pavlovic (26', 33'), O. Batrovic (39'), S. Gazivoda (65'), S. Golubovic (90+2').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.