Rudar 1–2 Jedinstvo: Result & Stats | First League

Rudar

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jedinstvo

V. Janketić 48'

Ž. Korać 74'

A. Krnić 45+1'

4/1/2023

First League · Round 27Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 73+ matches

Rudar43%

×Draw26%

Jedinstvo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RudarExpected goals in this matchJedinstvo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.23

Rudar

1.48

Jedinstvo

1.23

Rudar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 73 away

1.10

creates per match

1.18

1.28

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Rudar

1.10

Jedinstvo

1.18

allows per match

Rudar

1.28

Jedinstvo

1.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar+0.00on par

Jedinstvo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar ↓

Jedinstvo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rudar or draw

68%

Rudar or Jedinstvo

74%

Draw or Jedinstvo

57%

Winning margin

Rudar wins by 2+

21%

Jedinstvo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rudar 1+ goals

77%

Rudar 2+ goals

43%

Rudar 3+ goals

19%

Jedinstvo 1+ goals

71%

Jedinstvo 2+ goals

35%

Jedinstvo 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rudar (draw refunded)

58%

Jedinstvo (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Jedinstvo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.85 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar attack 1.10 + Jedinstvo defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.48

Jedinstvo attack 1.18 + Rudar defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rudar scores more

43%

level

26%

Jedinstvo scores more

32%

Rudar at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rudar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

I. Bojovic

45+1'

A. Krnić

46'

D. Tumbas← S. Radojičić

48'

V. Janketić

51'

R. Krulanović← Đ. Cvijović

53'

M. Idrizovic

57'

A. Golubović← D. Javorčić

67'

A. Golubovic

73'

L. Pejovic

74'

Ž. Korać

88'

B. Vlaovic

88'

M. Kovačević← A. Krnić

90+3'

H. Banda

90+3'

N. Cvijović← M. Idrizović

Rudar

Jedinstvo

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: D. Aničić

46'▲D. Tumbas←▼S. Radojičić

57'▲A. Golubović←▼D. Javorčić

Rudar substitutes

TumbasGolubović

Manager: V. Bogavac

51'▲R. Krulanović←▼Đ. Cvijović

88'▲M. Kovačević←▼A. Krnić

90+3'▲N. Cvijović←▼M. Idrizović

Jedinstvo substitutes

KrulanovićKovačevićCvijović

First League: Rudar 1–2 Jedinstvo

Jedinstvo beat Rudar 2-1 in First League on April 1, 2023.

Goals: A. Krnić (45+1'), V. Janketić (48'), Ž. Korać (74').

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.

Rudar vs Jedinstvo — First League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

First League: Rudar 1–2 Jedinstvo