Rudar Velenje 0–1 Zeta: Result & Stats

Rudar Velenje

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zeta

4/17/2021

First League · Round 30Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Rudar Velenje37%

×Draw28%

Zeta35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rudar VelenjeExpected goals in this matchZeta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.14

Rudar Velenje

1.17

Zeta

1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 54 away

1.10

creates per match

1.00

1.28

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Rudar Velenje

1.10

Zeta

1.00

allows per match

Rudar Velenje

1.28

Zeta

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par

Zeta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Zeta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw

65%

Rudar Velenje or Zeta

72%

Draw or Zeta

63%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+

15%

Zeta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals

69%

Rudar Velenje 2+ goals

33%

Rudar Velenje 3+ goals

11%

Zeta 1+ goals

68%

Zeta 2+ goals

32%

Zeta 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)

51%

Zeta (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Zeta away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.24 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + Zeta defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Zeta attack 1.00 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more

37%

level

28%

Zeta scores more

35%

Rudar Velenje at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rudar Velenje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff