Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rudar Velenje vs Mladost Lješkopolje — First League 2019

Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenje
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Mladost Lješkopolje
Mladost Lješkopolje
9/14/2019First LeagueFirst League · Round 7Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Rudar Velenje38%
×Draw28%
Mladost Lješkopolje34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Velenje
1.18
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 89 home / 53 away

creates per match

Rudar Velenje
1.10
Mladost Lješkopolje
0.94

allows per match

Rudar Velenje
1.28
Mladost Lješkopolje
1.25

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par
Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw
66%
Rudar Velenje or Mladost Lješkopolje
72%
Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje
62%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
16%
Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
69%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
33%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
12%
Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals
67%
Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals
30%
Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
52%
Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.28 · 89 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.10 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 0.94 + Rudar Velenje defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more
38%
level
28%
Mladost Lješkopolje scores more
34%

Rudar Velenje at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rudar Velenje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rudar Velenje vs Mladost Lješkopolje

Rudar Velenje beat Mladost Lješkopolje 2-1 in First League on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.