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Rudar Velenje vs Arsenal Tivat — Cup 2020

Rudar Velenje
Rudar Velenjeadvanced
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Arsenal Tivat
Arsenal Tivat
10/27/2021CupCup · Round of 16Stadion Pod Golubinjom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rudar Velenje42%
×Draw27%
Arsenal Tivat30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Velenje
1.33
Arsenal Tivat
1.08

Rudar Velenje creates 23% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Rudar Velenje
1.00
Arsenal Tivat
1.67

allows per match

Rudar Velenje
0.50
Arsenal Tivat
1.67

finishing

Rudar Velenje+0.00on par
Arsenal Tivat+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Velenje ↓

Arsenal Tivat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rudar Velenje or draw
70%
Rudar Velenje or Arsenal Tivat
73%
Draw or Arsenal Tivat
58%

Winning margin

Rudar Velenje wins by 2+
19%
Arsenal Tivat wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rudar Velenje 1+ goals
74%
Rudar Velenje 2+ goals
38%
Rudar Velenje 3+ goals
15%
Arsenal Tivat 1+ goals
66%
Arsenal Tivat 2+ goals
29%
Arsenal Tivat 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rudar Velenje (draw refunded)
58%
Arsenal Tivat (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Velenje at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Arsenal Tivat away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Velenje attack 1.00 + Arsenal Tivat defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Arsenal Tivat attack 1.67 + Rudar Velenje defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rudar Velenje scores more
42%
level
27%
Arsenal Tivat scores more
30%

Rudar Velenje at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rudar Velenje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Rudar Velenje 3–0 Arsenal Tivat

Rudar Velenje beat Arsenal Tivat 3-0 in Cup on October 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Pod Golubinjom in Pljevlja.