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Rudar Trbovlje vs Adria — 3. SNL - West 2020

Rudar Trbovlje
Rudar Trbovlje
Preview
15:00
Adria
Adria
8/29/20263. SNL - West3. SNL - West · West - 3
50%
Rudar Trbovlje
model favours
50%22%28%

Rudar Trbovlje and Adria have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
65%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rudar Trbovlje50%
×Draw22%
Adria28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rudar Trbovlje
1.96
Adria
1.41

Rudar Trbovlje creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 9 away

creates per match

Rudar Trbovlje
2.69
Adria
1.44

allows per match

Rudar Trbovlje
1.38
Adria
1.22

finishing

Rudar Trbovlje+0.00on par
Adria+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rudar Trbovlje ↓

Adria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rudar Trbovlje or draw
72%
Rudar Trbovlje or Adria
78%
Draw or Adria
50%

Winning margin

Rudar Trbovlje wins by 2+
29%
Adria wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rudar Trbovlje 1+ goals
86%
Rudar Trbovlje 2+ goals
58%
Rudar Trbovlje 3+ goals
31%
Adria 1+ goals
76%
Adria 2+ goals
41%
Adria 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rudar Trbovlje (draw refunded)
64%
Adria (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rudar Trbovlje at home — creates 2.69, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

Adria away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rudar Trbovlje attack 2.69 + Adria defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.96

Adria attack 1.44 + Rudar Trbovlje defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rudar Trbovlje scores more
50%
level
22%
Adria scores more
28%

Rudar Trbovlje at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rudar Trbovlje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Trbovlje
LDLLD
Adria
LLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rudar Trbovlje vs Adria — Match Preview

Rudar Trbovlje face Adria on August 29, 2026 in this 3. SNL - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.