Rubio NU 0–0 Nacional Asuncion: Result & Stats

Rubio NU

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nacional Asuncion

8/27/2016

Division Profesional - Clausura · Round 9Estadio Don Eduardo Acosta Caballero (Asunción)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rubio NU40%

×Draw32%

Nacional Asuncion29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubio NUExpected goals in this matchNacional Asuncion

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.85

Rubio NU

1.05

Nacional Asuncion

0.85

Rubio NU creates 24% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 5 away

0.90

creates per match

0.40

1.30

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Rubio NU

0.90

Nacional Asuncion

0.40

allows per match

Rubio NU

1.30

Nacional Asuncion

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubio NU+0.00on par

Nacional Asuncion+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubio NU ↓

Nacional Asuncion →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Rubio NU or draw

71%

Rubio NU or Nacional Asuncion

68%

Draw or Nacional Asuncion

60%

Winning margin

Rubio NU wins by 2+

16%

Nacional Asuncion wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rubio NU 1+ goals

65%

Rubio NU 2+ goals

28%

Rubio NU 3+ goals

9%

Nacional Asuncion 1+ goals

57%

Nacional Asuncion 2+ goals

21%

Nacional Asuncion 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Rubio NU (draw refunded)

58%

Nacional Asuncion (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubio NU at home — creates 0.90, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Nacional Asuncion away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubio NU attack 0.90 + Nacional Asuncion defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.05

Nacional Asuncion attack 0.40 + Rubio NU defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rubio NU scores more

40%

level

32%

Nacional Asuncion scores more

29%

Rubio NU at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rubio NU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff