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Rubin vs Orenburg — Premier League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Orenburg
Orenburg
J. Fameyeh 35'
M. Pérez 81'
7/30/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 2Ak Bars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Rubin47%
×Draw26%
Orenburg27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.48
Orenburg
1.07

Rubin creates 38% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 91 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.08
Orenburg
1.05

allows per match

Rubin
1.09
Orenburg
1.89

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
73%
Rubin or Orenburg
74%
Draw or Orenburg
53%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
23%
Orenburg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
77%
Rubin 2+ goals
43%
Rubin 3+ goals
19%
Orenburg 1+ goals
66%
Orenburg 2+ goals
29%
Orenburg 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
63%
Orenburg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Orenburg away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.89 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.08 + Orenburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Orenburg attack 1.05 + Rubin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rubin scores more
47%
level
26%
Orenburg scores more
27%

Rubin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
M. PérezOrenburgOrenburg · D
7.9

Match Events

35'
J. Fameyeh↳ A. Zotov
45+1'
Lucas Vera
56'
Matías Pérez
60'
M. Sidorov← V. Poluyakhtov
61'
J. Marín← E. Gürlük
72'
Ugochukwu Iwu
78'
M. Uridia← M. Daku
80'
L. Goglichidze← K. Pechenin
81'
M. Pérez↳ K. Kaplenko
85'
M. Apshatsev← A. Zotov
85'
O. Ivanov← U. Rahmonaliyev
88'
S. Oganesyan← D. Vorobyev
90'
Leo Goglichidze
90'
S. Bakaev← J. Fameyeh

Possession

36%Rubin

Shots

8Rubin

Pass accuracy

45%Rubin

Statistics

RubinOrenburg
Overview
36%Possession64%
8Total Shots17
1.28Expected Goals (xG)1.69
4Corners6
17Fouls10
Shots
8Total Shots17
3On Target4
3Off Target7
2Blocked6
5Inside Box8
3Outside Box9
Passing
36%Possession64%
305Total Passes568
205Accurate Passes466
67%Pass Accuracy82%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
17Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Rubin vs Orenburg

Rubin and Orenburg drew 1-1 in Premier League on July 30, 2023.

Goals: J. Fameyeh (35'), M. Pérez (81').

Orenburg controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at Ak Bars Arena in Kazan'.