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Rubin vs FC Orenburg — Cup 2019

Rubin
Rubin
Preview
15:00
FC Orenburg
FC Orenburg
10/13/2026CupCup · Group Stage - 4Ak Bars Arena
Big match
54%
Rubin
model favours
54%26%20%
1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Rubin54%
×Draw26%
FC Orenburg20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.52
FC Orenburg
0.82

Rubin creates 85% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.10
FC Orenburg
0.94

allows per match

Rubin
0.70
FC Orenburg
1.94

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
FC Orenburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

FC Orenburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
80%
Rubin or FC Orenburg
74%
Draw or FC Orenburg
46%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
28%
FC Orenburg wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
78%
Rubin 2+ goals
45%
Rubin 3+ goals
20%
FC Orenburg 1+ goals
56%
FC Orenburg 2+ goals
20%
FC Orenburg 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
73%
FC Orenburg (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

FC Orenburg away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.10 + FC Orenburg defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Orenburg attack 0.94 + Rubin defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rubin scores more
54%
level
26%
FC Orenburg scores more
20%

Rubin at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Rubin
WDLDD
Orenburg
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rubin vs FC Orenburg — Match Preview

Rubin face FC Orenburg on October 13, 2026 in this Cup fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rubin host FC Orenburg at Ak Bars Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.