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Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Premier League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
Preview
17:00
Dinamo Makhachkala
Dinamo Makhachkala
8/30/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Ak Bars Arena
Big match
47%
Rubin
model favours
47%29%24%

Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
40%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Rubin47%
×Draw29%
Dinamo Makhachkala24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.25
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.81

Rubin creates 54% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 31 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.08
Dinamo Makhachkala
0.52

allows per match

Rubin
1.09
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.42

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Dinamo Makhachkala+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Dinamo Makhachkala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
76%
Rubin or Dinamo Makhachkala
71%
Draw or Dinamo Makhachkala
53%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
21%
Dinamo Makhachkala wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
71%
Rubin 2+ goals
36%
Rubin 3+ goals
13%
Dinamo Makhachkala 1+ goals
56%
Dinamo Makhachkala 2+ goals
19%
Dinamo Makhachkala 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
66%
Dinamo Makhachkala (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.08 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.25

Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + Rubin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rubin scores more
47%
level
29%
Dinamo Makhachkala scores more
24%

Rubin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rubin have won 5 of the last 6 meetings
  • Rubin fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 1.4 expected)
  • Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Rubin
Direct / counter-attacking
Dinamo Makhachkala
Direct / counter-attacking
43%Possession44%
72%Pass accuracy68%
9.9Shots10.6
1.36xGBiggest gap0.88
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
RubinDinamo Makhachkala

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

5
Rubin
0
Draws
1
Dinamo Makhachkala
Avg goals: 2.3BTTS: 33%
1–21–03–22–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Rubin
WDLDD
Makhachkala
WDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rubin vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Match Preview

Rubin face Dinamo Makhachkala on August 30, 2026 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rubin host Dinamo Makhachkala at Ak Bars Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.