Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rubin vs Akhmat Grozny — Premier League 2018

Rubin
Rubin
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Akhmat Grozny
Akhmat Grozny
3/31/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Ak Bars Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Rubin41%
×Draw28%
Akhmat Grozny31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin
1.27
Akhmat Grozny
1.05

Rubin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 121 away

creates per match

Rubin
1.08
Akhmat Grozny
1.01

allows per match

Rubin
1.09
Akhmat Grozny
1.47

finishing

Rubin+0.00on par
Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin ↓

Akhmat Grozny →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rubin or draw
69%
Rubin or Akhmat Grozny
72%
Draw or Akhmat Grozny
59%

Winning margin

Rubin wins by 2+
19%
Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rubin 1+ goals
72%
Rubin 2+ goals
36%
Rubin 3+ goals
14%
Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals
65%
Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
28%
Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rubin (draw refunded)
57%
Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.09 · 105 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin attack 1.08 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.27

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Rubin defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rubin scores more
41%
level
28%
Akhmat Grozny scores more
31%

Rubin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Rubin 2–1 Akhmat Grozny

Rubin beat Akhmat Grozny 2-1 in Premier League on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Ak Bars Arena in Kazan'.