Rubin Kazan W 0–3 Zenit W: Result & Stats

Rubin Kazan W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Zenit W

6/24/2023

Supreme Division Women · Round 14Stadion Trudovye rezervy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rubin Kazan W11%

×Draw20%

Zenit W69%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rubin Kazan WExpected goals in this matchZenit W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

2.01

Rubin Kazan W

0.67

Zenit W

2.01

Zenit W creates 200% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 75 away

0.83

creates per match

2.01

allows per match

0.51

creates per match

Rubin Kazan W

0.83

Zenit W

2.01

allows per match

Rubin Kazan W

2.01

Zenit W

0.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rubin Kazan W+0.00on par

Zenit W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan W ↓

Zenit W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–114%

0–214%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan W or draw

31%

Rubin Kazan W or Zenit W

80%

Draw or Zenit W

89%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan W wins by 2+

3%

Zenit W wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan W 1+ goals

49%

Rubin Kazan W 2+ goals

15%

Rubin Kazan W 3+ goals

3%

Zenit W 1+ goals

87%

Zenit W 2+ goals

59%

Zenit W 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan W (draw refunded)

14%

Zenit W (draw refunded)

86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan W at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

Zenit W away — creates 2.01, concedes 0.51 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan W attack 0.83 + Zenit W defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.67

Zenit W attack 2.01 + Rubin Kazan W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Rubin Kazan W scores more

11%

level

20%

Zenit W scores more

69%

Zenit W at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zenit W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff