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Rubin Kazan W vs Chertanovo W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Rubin Kazan W
Rubin Kazan W
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chertanovo W
Chertanovo W
4/27/2022Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 7Stadion Rubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rubin Kazan W28%
×Draw26%
Chertanovo W46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan W
1.12
Chertanovo W
1.52

Chertanovo W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 74 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan W
0.83
Chertanovo W
1.04

allows per match

Rubin Kazan W
2.01
Chertanovo W
1.41

finishing

Rubin Kazan W+0.00on par
Chertanovo W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan W ↓

Chertanovo W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan W or draw
54%
Rubin Kazan W or Chertanovo W
74%
Draw or Chertanovo W
72%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan W wins by 2+
11%
Chertanovo W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan W 1+ goals
67%
Rubin Kazan W 2+ goals
31%
Rubin Kazan W 3+ goals
10%
Chertanovo W 1+ goals
78%
Chertanovo W 2+ goals
45%
Chertanovo W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan W (draw refunded)
38%
Chertanovo W (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan W at home — creates 0.83, concedes 2.01 · 69 matches

Chertanovo W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.41 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan W attack 0.83 + Chertanovo W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.12

Chertanovo W attack 1.04 + Rubin Kazan W defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rubin Kazan W scores more
28%
level
26%
Chertanovo W scores more
46%

Chertanovo W at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chertanovo W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rubin Kazan W vs Chertanovo W

Rubin Kazan W beat Chertanovo W 3-0 in Supreme Division Women on April 27, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Rubin in Kazan'.