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Rubin Kazan U20 vs Lokomotiv Moskva U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Rubin Kazan U20
Rubin Kazan U20
PST
00:00
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
4/4/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Rubin Kazan U2025%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Moskva U2051%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rubin Kazan U20
1.06
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
1.64

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 21 away

creates per match

Rubin Kazan U20
1.27
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
2.00

allows per match

Rubin Kazan U20
1.28
Lokomotiv Moskva U20
0.86

finishing

Rubin Kazan U20+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva U20+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rubin Kazan U20 ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rubin Kazan U20 or draw
49%
Rubin Kazan U20 or Lokomotiv Moskva U20
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva U20
75%

Winning margin

Rubin Kazan U20 wins by 2+
9%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Rubin Kazan U20 1+ goals
65%
Rubin Kazan U20 2+ goals
29%
Rubin Kazan U20 3+ goals
9%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 1+ goals
81%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 2+ goals
49%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rubin Kazan U20 (draw refunded)
33%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rubin Kazan U20 at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.28 · 86 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rubin Kazan U20 attack 1.27 + Lokomotiv Moskva U20 defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 attack 2.00 + Rubin Kazan U20 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rubin Kazan U20 scores more
25%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Moskva U20 scores more
51%

Lokomotiv Moskva U20 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rubin Kazan U20 host Lokomotiv Moskva U20

April 4, 2020: Rubin Kazan U20 take on Lokomotiv Moskva U20 in Youth Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.