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Rozova dolina vs Karnobat — Third League - Southeast 2018

Rozova dolina
Rozova dolina
FT
2 – 1
Karnobat
Karnobat
3/27/2021Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · South-East - 23Stadion Sevtopolis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 118+ matches

Rozova dolina70%
×Draw18%
Karnobat13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rozova dolina
2.34
Karnobat
0.88

Rozova dolina creates 166% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 118 away

creates per match

Rozova dolina
2.10
Karnobat
0.79

allows per match

Rozova dolina
0.96
Karnobat
2.58

finishing

Rozova dolina+0.00on par
Karnobat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rozova dolina ↓

Karnobat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rozova dolina or draw
87%
Rozova dolina or Karnobat
82%
Draw or Karnobat
30%

Winning margin

Rozova dolina wins by 2+
47%
Karnobat wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rozova dolina 1+ goals
90%
Rozova dolina 2+ goals
67%
Rozova dolina 3+ goals
41%
Karnobat 1+ goals
59%
Karnobat 2+ goals
22%
Karnobat 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rozova dolina (draw refunded)
85%
Karnobat (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rozova dolina at home — creates 2.10, concedes 0.96 · 135 matches

Karnobat away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.58 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rozova dolina attack 2.10 + Karnobat defence 2.58 → ÷2 → 2.34

Karnobat attack 0.79 + Rozova dolina defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Rozova dolina scores more
70%
level
18%
Karnobat scores more
13%

Rozova dolina at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Rozova dolina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rozova dolina vs Karnobat

Rozova dolina beat Karnobat 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Sevtopolis in Kazanlak.