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Royal Leopards vs Mbabane Swallows — Premier League 2020

Royal Leopards
Royal Leopards
FT
4 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Mbabane Swallows
Mbabane Swallows
5/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Mavuso Sports Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Royal Leopards42%
×Draw27%
Mbabane Swallows31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Royal Leopards
1.33
Mbabane Swallows
1.09

Royal Leopards creates 22% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 83 away

creates per match

Royal Leopards
1.86
Mbabane Swallows
1.37

allows per match

Royal Leopards
0.81
Mbabane Swallows
0.81

finishing

Royal Leopards+0.00on par
Mbabane Swallows+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Royal Leopards ↓

Mbabane Swallows →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Royal Leopards or draw
69%
Royal Leopards or Mbabane Swallows
73%
Draw or Mbabane Swallows
58%

Winning margin

Royal Leopards wins by 2+
19%
Mbabane Swallows wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Royal Leopards 1+ goals
74%
Royal Leopards 2+ goals
38%
Royal Leopards 3+ goals
15%
Mbabane Swallows 1+ goals
66%
Mbabane Swallows 2+ goals
30%
Mbabane Swallows 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Royal Leopards (draw refunded)
58%
Mbabane Swallows (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Royal Leopards at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.81 · 84 matches

Mbabane Swallows away — creates 1.37, concedes 0.81 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Royal Leopards attack 1.86 + Mbabane Swallows defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.33

Mbabane Swallows attack 1.37 + Royal Leopards defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Royal Leopards scores more
42%
level
27%
Mbabane Swallows scores more
31%

Royal Leopards at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Royal Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Royal Leopards 4–2 Mbabane Swallows

Royal Leopards beat Mbabane Swallows 4-2 in Premier League on May 7, 2023.

The match was played at Mavuso Sports Centre in Manzini.