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Rottenmann vs Gnas — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Rottenmann
Rottenmann
PST
17:00
Gnas
Gnas
5/30/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 28Paltenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Rottenmann42%
×Draw23%
Gnas35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rottenmann
1.73
Gnas
1.56

Rottenmann creates 11% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

creates per match

Rottenmann
1.47
Gnas
1.16

allows per match

Rottenmann
1.97
Gnas
2.00

finishing

Rottenmann+0.00on par
Gnas+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rottenmann ↓

Gnas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rottenmann or draw
65%
Rottenmann or Gnas
77%
Draw or Gnas
58%

Winning margin

Rottenmann wins by 2+
22%
Gnas wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rottenmann 1+ goals
82%
Rottenmann 2+ goals
52%
Rottenmann 3+ goals
25%
Gnas 1+ goals
79%
Gnas 2+ goals
46%
Gnas 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rottenmann (draw refunded)
55%
Gnas (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rottenmann at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.97 · 30 matches

Gnas away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.00 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rottenmann attack 1.47 + Gnas defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.73

Gnas attack 1.16 + Rottenmann defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rottenmann scores more
42%
level
23%
Gnas scores more
35%

Rottenmann at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rottenmann will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rottenmann host Gnas

May 30, 2020: Rottenmann take on Gnas in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rottenmann host Gnas at Paltenstadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.