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Rotherham vs York — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
Preview
14:00
York
York
8/22/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Aesseal New York Stadium
45%
Rotherham
model favours
45%25%30%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
56%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rotherham45%
×Draw25%
York30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.57
York
1.25

Rotherham creates 26% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
York
1.13

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
York
1.40

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
York+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

York →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
70%
Rotherham or York
75%
Draw or York
55%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
23%
York wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
79%
Rotherham 2+ goals
46%
Rotherham 3+ goals
21%
York 1+ goals
71%
York 2+ goals
36%
York 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
60%
York (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

York away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + York defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

York attack 1.13 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Rotherham scores more
45%
level
25%
York scores more
30%

Rotherham at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rotherham
WDDWL
York
LLWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotherham vs York — Match Preview

Rotherham face York on August 22, 2026 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rotherham host York at Aesseal New York Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.