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Rotherham vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
Preview
15:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
1/30/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 28Aesseal New York Stadium
Big match
41%
Rotherham
model favours
41%24%34%

Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotherham41%
×Draw24%
Swindon Town34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.59
Swindon Town
1.43

Rotherham creates 11% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 139 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
Swindon Town
1.49

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
Swindon Town
1.45

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
66%
Rotherham or Swindon Town
76%
Draw or Swindon Town
59%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
21%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
80%
Rotherham 2+ goals
47%
Rotherham 3+ goals
21%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
76%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
42%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
55%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.59

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rotherham scores more
41%
level
24%
Swindon Town scores more
34%

Rotherham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rotherham
WDDWL
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotherham face Swindon Town (League Two)

League Two returns with Rotherham hosting Swindon Town. Match starts January 30, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rotherham host Swindon Town at Aesseal New York Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.