Rotherham 2–1 Swansea: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Swansea

R. Manning 87' (pen), 79' (pen)

O. McBurnie 25'

11/3/2018

Championship · Round 16New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham37%

×Draw27%

Swansea35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.20

Rotherham

1.24

Swansea

1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 55 away

1.00

creates per match

1.10

1.30

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Rotherham

1.00

Swansea

1.10

allows per match

Rotherham

1.30

Swansea

1.48

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more

Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

65%

Rotherham or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

63%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Swansea wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

71%

Rotherham 2+ goals

35%

Rotherham 3+ goals

13%

Swansea 1+ goals

70%

Swansea 2+ goals

34%

Swansea 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

51%

Swansea (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Swansea attack 1.10 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotherham scores more

37%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

35%

Rotherham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

R. Manning

Rotherham · M

8.3

Match Events

22'

Michael Smith

22'

Will Vaulks

22'

Leroy Fer

25'

O. McBurnie↳ D. James

46'

R. Manning← K. Vassell

62'

J. Newell← J. Taylor

74'

Bersant Celina

75'

J. Proctor← R. Towell

79'

R. ManningPenalty

86'

Oliver McBurnie

87'

R. ManningPenalty

90'

Mike Van der Hoorn

90'

B. McKay← K. Naughton

90'

C. Baker-Richardson← J. Fulton

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamSwansea

Overview

28%Possession72%

7Total Shots12

3Corners2

17Fouls12

Shots

7Total Shots12

4On Target4

2Off Target5

1Blocked3

5Inside Box8

2Outside Box4

Passing

28%Possession72%

249Total Passes642

160Accurate Passes539

64%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2