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Rotherham vs Stoke City — Championship 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Stoke City
Stoke City
R. Towell 50'
R. Manning 47' (pen)
Bojan 85'
T. Ince 59'
9/29/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 10New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham40%
×Draw27%
Stoke City33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.32
Stoke City
1.17

Rotherham creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 50 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.00
Stoke City
1.04

allows per match

Rotherham
1.30
Stoke City
1.64

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more
Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Stoke City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
67%
Rotherham or Stoke City
73%
Draw or Stoke City
60%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
18%
Stoke City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
73%
Rotherham 2+ goals
38%
Rotherham 3+ goals
15%
Stoke City 1+ goals
69%
Stoke City 2+ goals
33%
Stoke City 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
55%
Stoke City (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.32

Stoke City attack 1.04 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rotherham scores more
40%
level
27%
Stoke City scores more
33%

Rotherham at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
B. AfobeStoke CityStoke City · F
7.5

Match Events

47'
R. ManningPenalty
50'
R. Towell↳ R. Wood
55'
Z. Vyner← R. Wood
59'
T. Ince↳ E. Pieters
66'
Bojan← O. Etebo
69'
J. Taylor← J. Newell
82'
C. Adam← J. Allen
82'
P. Crouch← S. Berahino
85'
Bojan↳ B. Afobe

Possession

35%Rotherham

Shots

13Rotherham

Pass accuracy

45%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamStoke
Overview
35%Possession65%
13Total Shots19
6Corners8
8Fouls7
Shots
13Total Shots19
2On Target7
4Off Target7
7Blocked5
9Inside Box12
4Outside Box7
Passing
35%Possession65%
262Total Passes474
174Accurate Passes385
66%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
8Fouls7
0Red Cards0
1Offsides4

Match Recap: Rotherham vs Stoke City

Rotherham and Stoke City drew 2-2 in Championship on September 29, 2018.

Goals: R. Manning (47' pen), R. Towell (50'), T. Ince (59'), Bojan (85').

Stoke City controlled possession (65%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at New York Stadium in Rotherham.