Rotherham 1–2 Norwich: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Norwich

F. Ladapo 3'

J. Hugill 90+5' (pen)

M. Ihiekwe 68' (OG)

10/17/2020

Championship · Round 5AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham36%

×Draw27%

Norwich37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchNorwich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.25

Rotherham

1.24

Norwich

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 61 away

1.00

creates per match

1.20

1.30

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Rotherham

1.00

Norwich

1.20

allows per match

Rotherham

1.30

Norwich

1.48

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more

Norwich+0.13scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Norwich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

63%

Rotherham or Norwich

73%

Draw or Norwich

64%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Norwich wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

71%

Rotherham 2+ goals

35%

Rotherham 3+ goals

13%

Norwich 1+ goals

71%

Norwich 2+ goals

36%

Norwich 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

50%

Norwich (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Norwich away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Norwich defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Norwich attack 1.20 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotherham scores more

36%

level

27%

Norwich scores more

37%

Norwich at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Norwich will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

S. MacDonald

Rotherham · M

7.5

Match Events

3'

F. Ladapo↳ C. Robertson

56'

G. Hanley

67'

F. Jozefzoon← M. Miller

68'

M. IhiekweOwn goal

71'

A. MacDonald

73'

R. Wood← S. MacDonald

77'

M. Smith← F. Ladapo

80'

M. Vrančić← O. Skipp

80'

T. Pukki← M. Stiepermann

90+5'

M. Crooks

90+7'

K. McLean← E. Buendía

90+5'

J. HugillPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamNorwich

Overview

37%Possession63%

14Total Shots21

8Corners5

18Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots21

3On Target7

5Off Target8

6Blocked6

9Inside Box12

5Outside Box9

Passing

37%Possession63%

277Total Passes459

186Accurate Passes354

67%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls12

1Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3