Rotherham 2–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Rotherham

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Huddersfield

G. Kelly 61'

C. Washington 25'

D. Ward 29'

10/15/2022

Championship · Round 15AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham37%

×Draw27%

Huddersfield36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RotherhamExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.21

Rotherham

1.22

Huddersfield

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.00

creates per match

1.11

1.30

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Rotherham

1.00

Huddersfield

1.11

allows per match

Rotherham

1.30

Huddersfield

1.44

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more

Huddersfield+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw

64%

Rotherham or Huddersfield

73%

Draw or Huddersfield

63%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+

16%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals

70%

Rotherham 2+ goals

34%

Rotherham 3+ goals

12%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

70%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

34%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)

50%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Huddersfield defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.22

Huddersfield attack 1.11 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rotherham scores more

37%

level

27%

Huddersfield scores more

36%

Rotherham at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

G. Kelly

Rotherham · F

7.7

Match Events

25'

C. Washington↳ D. Barlaser

29'

42'

58'

60'

61'

G. Kelly↳ R. Wood

66'

C. Humphreys← L. Peltier

66'

C. Bramall← S. Ferguson

67'

A. Rowe← B. Jackson

67'

C. Mahoney← D. Holmes

67'

J. Rudoni← D. Ward

74'

Yuta Nakayama

84'

Charles Ondo← D. Kasumu

89'

Wes Harding

89'

H. Odoffin← C. Washington

90+3'

Grant Hall

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RotherhamHuddersfield

Overview

49%Possession51%

10Total Shots7

3Corners3

12Fouls12

Shots

10Total Shots7

4On Target4

1Off Target2

5Blocked1

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

322Total Passes339

188Accurate Passes212

58%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides3

Championship: Rotherham 2–1 Huddersfield

Rotherham beat Huddersfield 2-1 in Championship on October 15, 2022.

Goals: C. Washington (25'), D. Ward (29'), G. Kelly (61').

Huddersfield controlled possession (51%) and registered 7 shots to 10.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.

Rotherham vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Rotherham 2–1 Huddersfield