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Rotherham vs Huddersfield — Championship 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Huddersfield
Huddersfield
B. Wiles 33'
A. MacDonald 90+6' (OG)
10/3/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4AESSEAL New York Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Rotherham39%
×Draw28%
Huddersfield33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.25
Huddersfield
1.13

Rotherham creates 11% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.00
Huddersfield
0.96

allows per match

Rotherham
1.30
Huddersfield
1.49

finishing

Rotherham+0.44scores more
Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Huddersfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
67%
Rotherham or Huddersfield
72%
Draw or Huddersfield
61%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
17%
Huddersfield wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
71%
Rotherham 2+ goals
36%
Rotherham 3+ goals
13%
Huddersfield 1+ goals
68%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
31%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
54%
Huddersfield (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.30 · 9 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.00 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.25

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Rotherham defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Rotherham scores more
39%
level
28%
Huddersfield scores more
33%

Rotherham at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
C. EitingHuddersfieldHuddersfield · M
7.5

Match Events

33'
B. Wiles↳ K. Sadlier
52'
M. Smith← G. Hirst
70'
K. Vassell← F. Ladapo
75'
J. Lindsay← S. MacDonald
78'
M. Daly← J. Bacuna
80'
Joe Mattock
83'
Richard Stearman
83'
A. Diakhaby← I. Mbenza
90+6'
A. MacDonaldOwn goal

Possession

26%Rotherham

Shots

5Rotherham

Pass accuracy

38%Rotherham

Statistics

RotherhamHuddersfield
Overview
26%Possession74%
5Total Shots11
2Corners6
17Fouls12
Shots
5Total Shots11
2On Target1
0Off Target5
3Blocked5
4Inside Box6
1Outside Box5
Passing
26%Possession74%
189Total Passes511
90Accurate Passes408
48%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
17Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides4

Championship: Rotherham 1–1 Huddersfield

Rotherham and Huddersfield drew 1-1 in Championship on October 3, 2020.

Goals: B. Wiles (33'), A. MacDonald (90+6' o.g.).

Huddersfield controlled possession (74%) and registered 11 shots to 5.

The match was played at AESSEAL New York Stadium in Rotherham, South Yorkshire.