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Rotherham vs Grimsby — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
Preview
15:00
Grimsby
Grimsby
3/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Aesseal New York Stadium
44%
Rotherham
model favours
44%25%31%
1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotherham44%
×Draw25%
Grimsby31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.56
Grimsby
1.26

Rotherham creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 138 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
Grimsby
1.15

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
Grimsby
1.38

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Grimsby+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Grimsby →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
69%
Rotherham or Grimsby
75%
Draw or Grimsby
56%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
22%
Grimsby wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
79%
Rotherham 2+ goals
46%
Rotherham 3+ goals
21%
Grimsby 1+ goals
72%
Grimsby 2+ goals
36%
Grimsby 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
59%
Grimsby (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Grimsby away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.38 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + Grimsby defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.56

Grimsby attack 1.15 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rotherham scores more
44%
level
25%
Grimsby scores more
31%

Rotherham at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Rotherham
WDDWL
Grimsby
DDWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rotherham vs Grimsby — Match Preview

Rotherham face Grimsby on March 20, 2027 in this League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Rotherham host Grimsby at Aesseal New York Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.