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Rotherham vs Chesterfield — League Two 2018

Rotherham
Rotherham
Preview
14:00
Chesterfield
Chesterfield
8/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Aesseal New York Stadium
41%
Rotherham
model favours
41%25%34%

Chesterfield score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Rotherham41%
×Draw25%
Chesterfield34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rotherham
1.50
Chesterfield
1.36

Rotherham creates 10% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 74 away

creates per match

Rotherham
1.74
Chesterfield
1.35

allows per match

Rotherham
1.37
Chesterfield
1.27

finishing

Rotherham+0.00on par
Chesterfield+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rotherham ↓

Chesterfield →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rotherham or draw
66%
Rotherham or Chesterfield
75%
Draw or Chesterfield
59%

Winning margin

Rotherham wins by 2+
20%
Chesterfield wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rotherham 1+ goals
78%
Rotherham 2+ goals
44%
Rotherham 3+ goals
19%
Chesterfield 1+ goals
74%
Chesterfield 2+ goals
39%
Chesterfield 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rotherham (draw refunded)
54%
Chesterfield (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rotherham at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Chesterfield away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.27 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rotherham attack 1.74 + Chesterfield defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.50

Chesterfield attack 1.35 + Rotherham defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rotherham scores more
41%
level
25%
Chesterfield scores more
34%

Rotherham at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rotherham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged just 1.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rotherham
WDDWL
Chesterfield
LDDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rotherham host Chesterfield

August 29, 2026: Rotherham take on Chesterfield in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rotherham host Chesterfield at Aesseal New York Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.