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Rota vs Xerez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Rota
Rota
CANC
00:00
Xerez
Xerez
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 31Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Rota37%
×Draw27%
Xerez36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rota
1.25
Xerez
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 75 away

creates per match

Rota
1.33
Xerez
1.20

allows per match

Rota
1.24
Xerez
1.17

finishing

Rota+0.00on par
Xerez+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rota ↓

Xerez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rota or draw
64%
Rota or Xerez
73%
Draw or Xerez
63%

Winning margin

Rota wins by 2+
16%
Xerez wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Rota 1+ goals
71%
Rota 2+ goals
36%
Rota 3+ goals
13%
Xerez 1+ goals
70%
Xerez 2+ goals
34%
Xerez 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rota (draw refunded)
51%
Xerez (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rota at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.24 · 58 matches

Xerez away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.17 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rota attack 1.33 + Xerez defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Xerez attack 1.20 + Rota defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Rota scores more
37%
level
27%
Xerez scores more
36%

Rota at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Rota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Rota host Xerez

March 22, 2020: Rota take on Xerez in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Rota host Xerez at Estadio Municipal Alcalde Navarro Flores.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.