Rostov W 1–0 Lokomotiv Moskva W: Result & Stats

Rostov W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Lokomotiv Moskva W

9/16/2022

Supreme Division Women · Championship Round - 1Stadion Lokomotiv Rostov-na-Donu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Rostov W16%

×Draw25%

Lokomotiv Moskva W59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rostov WExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv Moskva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

1.56

Rostov W

0.67

Lokomotiv Moskva W

1.56

Lokomotiv Moskva W creates 133% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 75 away

0.67

creates per match

1.76

1.35

allows per match

0.67

creates per match

Rostov W

0.67

Lokomotiv Moskva W

1.76

allows per match

Rostov W

1.35

Lokomotiv Moskva W

0.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rostov W+0.00on par

Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov W ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–117%

0–213%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Rostov W or draw

41%

Rostov W or Lokomotiv Moskva W

75%

Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva W

84%

Winning margin

Rostov W wins by 2+

4%

Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Rostov W 1+ goals

49%

Rostov W 2+ goals

15%

Rostov W 3+ goals

3%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals

79%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals

46%

Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Rostov W (draw refunded)

21%

Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov W at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.35 · 69 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov W attack 0.67 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 1.76 + Rostov W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Rostov W scores more

16%

level

25%

Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more

59%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff