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Rostov U20 vs Krasnodar U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Rostov U20
Rostov U20
PST
00:00
Krasnodar U20
Krasnodar U20
4/11/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Rostov U2033%
×Draw24%
Krasnodar U2044%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostov U20
1.45
Krasnodar U20
1.70

Krasnodar U20 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Rostov U20
1.45
Krasnodar U20
1.70

allows per match

Rostov U20
1.70
Krasnodar U20
1.45

finishing

Rostov U20+0.00on par
Krasnodar U20+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov U20 ↓

Krasnodar U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rostov U20 or draw
56%
Rostov U20 or Krasnodar U20
76%
Draw or Krasnodar U20
67%

Winning margin

Rostov U20 wins by 2+
15%
Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rostov U20 1+ goals
77%
Rostov U20 2+ goals
42%
Rostov U20 3+ goals
18%
Krasnodar U20 1+ goals
82%
Krasnodar U20 2+ goals
51%
Krasnodar U20 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rostov U20 (draw refunded)
43%
Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov U20 at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.70 · 20 matches

Krasnodar U20 away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov U20 attack 1.45 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.45

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.70 + Rostov U20 defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rostov U20 scores more
33%
level
24%
Krasnodar U20 scores more
44%

Krasnodar U20 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krasnodar U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rostov U20 face Krasnodar U20 (Youth Championship)

Youth Championship returns with Rostov U20 hosting Krasnodar U20. Match starts April 11, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.