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Roskilde vs Thisted FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
Preview
12:00
Thisted FC
Thisted FC
3/29/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 21
Big match
49%
Roskilde
model favours
49%24%27%

Both teams score in 79% of Roskilde’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Roskilde49%
×Draw24%
Thisted FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
1.73
Thisted FC
1.23

Roskilde creates 41% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 87 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.98
Thisted FC
1.20

allows per match

Roskilde
1.26
Thisted FC
1.48

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

Thisted FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
73%
Roskilde or Thisted FC
76%
Draw or Thisted FC
51%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
26%
Thisted FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
82%
Roskilde 2+ goals
52%
Roskilde 3+ goals
25%
Thisted FC 1+ goals
71%
Thisted FC 2+ goals
35%
Thisted FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
64%
Thisted FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.73

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Roskilde scores more
49%
level
24%
Thisted FC scores more
27%

Roskilde at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Thisted FC win just 29% against the top half (vs 57% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Roskilde
LDWW
FC
LLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Roskilde host Thisted FC

March 29, 2027: Roskilde take on Thisted FC in 2nd Division - Group 1. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.