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Roskilde vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
Preview
18:00
HIK
HIK
11/6/20262nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 15
Big match
54%
Roskilde
model favours
54%22%24%

Both teams score in 79% of Roskilde’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Roskilde54%
×Draw22%
HIK24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
1.91
HIK
1.19

Roskilde creates 61% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 82 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.98
HIK
1.11

allows per match

Roskilde
1.26
HIK
1.83

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
76%
Roskilde or HIK
78%
Draw or HIK
46%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
31%
HIK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
85%
Roskilde 2+ goals
57%
Roskilde 3+ goals
30%
HIK 1+ goals
70%
HIK 2+ goals
33%
HIK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
70%
HIK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

HIK away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + HIK defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.91

HIK attack 1.11 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Roskilde scores more
54%
level
22%
HIK scores more
24%

Roskilde at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Roskilde have won 7 of the last 10 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Roskilde
LDWW
HIK
DLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Roskilde vs HIK — Match Preview

Roskilde face HIK on November 6, 2026 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.