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Roskilde vs B 93 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
Preview
18:00
B 93
B 93
3/12/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 18
Big match
41%
Roskilde
model favours
41%24%35%

Both teams score in 79% of Roskilde’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Roskilde41%
×Draw24%
B 9335%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
1.63
B 93
1.48

Roskilde creates 10% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 48 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.98
B 93
1.71

allows per match

Roskilde
1.26
B 93
1.27

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
65%
Roskilde or B 93
76%
Draw or B 93
59%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
21%
B 93 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
80%
Roskilde 2+ goals
48%
Roskilde 3+ goals
22%
B 93 1+ goals
77%
B 93 2+ goals
43%
B 93 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
54%
B 93 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + B 93 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.63

B 93 attack 1.71 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Roskilde scores more
41%
level
24%
B 93 scores more
35%

Roskilde at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Roskilde
LDWW
93
LDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Roskilde vs B 93 — Match Preview

Roskilde face B 93 on March 12, 2027 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.