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Tokushima Vortis vs Yokohama FC — J2 League 2018

Tokushima Vortis
Tokushima Vortis
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
11/10/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 40Pocari Sweat Stadium (Naruto)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Tokushima Vortis36%
×Draw28%
Yokohama FC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tokushima Vortis
1.16
Yokohama FC
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 146 home / 86 away

creates per match

Tokushima Vortis
1.31
Yokohama FC
1.41

allows per match

Tokushima Vortis
0.90
Yokohama FC
1.00

finishing

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tokushima Vortis ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Tokushima Vortis or draw
64%
Tokushima Vortis or Yokohama FC
72%
Draw or Yokohama FC
64%

Winning margin

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+
15%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals
69%
Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals
32%
Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals
11%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
69%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
32%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)
50%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tokushima Vortis at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.90 · 146 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.31 + Yokohama FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Yokohama FC attack 1.41 + Tokushima Vortis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Tokushima Vortis scores more
36%
level
28%
Yokohama FC scores more
36%

Tokushima Vortis at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Tokushima Vortis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Tokushima Vortis vs Yokohama FC

Yokohama FC beat Tokushima Vortis 1-0 in J2 League on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Pocari Sweat Stadium (Naruto).