Rosengård W vs Piteå W: Preview & Prediction

Rosengård W

Preview

11:00

Piteå W

9/27/2026

Damallsvenskan · Round 20Malmo IP

Big match

61%

Rosengård W

model favours

61%21%18%

Rosengård W score first in only 9% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0

likely score

58%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Rosengård W61%

×Draw21%

Piteå W18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosengård WExpected goals in this matchPiteå W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.98

Rosengård W

2.03

Piteå W

0.98

Rosengård W creates 107% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

2.64

creates per match

1.00

0.96

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Rosengård W

2.64

Piteå W

1.00

allows per match

Rosengård W

0.96

Piteå W

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosengård W+0.00on par

Piteå W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård W ↓

Piteå W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rosengård W or draw

82%

Rosengård W or Piteå W

79%

Draw or Piteå W

39%

Winning margin

Rosengård W wins by 2+

38%

Piteå W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Rosengård W 1+ goals

87%

Rosengård W 2+ goals

60%

Rosengård W 3+ goals

33%

Piteå W 1+ goals

62%

Piteå W 2+ goals

26%

Piteå W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Rosengård W (draw refunded)

78%

Piteå W (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård W at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Piteå W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.42 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård W attack 2.64 + Piteå W defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.03

Piteå W attack 1.00 + Rosengård W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rosengård W scores more

61%

level

21%

Piteå W scores more

18%

Rosengård W at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rosengård W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Piteå W score first in only 15% of matches
Both sides lean high-scoring (64% and 62% over 2.5)
Rosengård W win just 47% against the top half (vs 75% against the bottom)
Style contrast — Rosengård W play Attack-heavy, Piteå W Direct / counter-attacking
Piteå W fall short of their xG (0.7 vs 1.5 expected)