Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosengård vs Trelleborg — Ettan - Södra 2019

Rosengård
Rosengård
Preview
17:00
Trelleborg
Trelleborg
9/17/2026Ettan - SödraEttan - Södra · Södra - 22
57%
Trelleborg
model favours
19%24%57%

Trelleborg score first in only 27% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rosengård19%
×Draw24%
Trelleborg57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosengård
0.88
Trelleborg
1.73

Trelleborg creates 97% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rosengård
1.18
Trelleborg
2.29

allows per match

Rosengård
1.18
Trelleborg
0.57

finishing

Rosengård+0.00on par
Trelleborg+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård ↓

Trelleborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rosengård or draw
43%
Rosengård or Trelleborg
76%
Draw or Trelleborg
81%

Winning margin

Rosengård wins by 2+
6%
Trelleborg wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Rosengård 1+ goals
59%
Rosengård 2+ goals
22%
Rosengård 3+ goals
6%
Trelleborg 1+ goals
82%
Trelleborg 2+ goals
52%
Trelleborg 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rosengård (draw refunded)
25%
Trelleborg (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Trelleborg away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård attack 1.18 + Trelleborg defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.88

Trelleborg attack 2.29 + Rosengård defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rosengård scores more
19%
level
24%
Trelleborg scores more
57%

Trelleborg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Trelleborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 77% of Rosengård’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 77% of Rosengård’s matches
  • Rosengård have scored in 7 games running
  • Rosengård win just 18% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)
  • 42% of Rosengård’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • 26% of Rosengård’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Rosengård
DLWWL
Trelleborg
DWWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rosengård face Trelleborg (Ettan - Södra)

Ettan - Södra returns with Rosengård hosting Trelleborg. Match starts September 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.