Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Rosenborg W vs Fortuna Ålesund W — Toppserien 2021

Rosenborg W
Rosenborg W
Preview
15:00
Fortuna Ålesund W
Fortuna Ålesund W
9/26/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 17Koteng Arena
Big match
44%
Rosenborg W
model favours
44%23%33%

Rosenborg W are unbeaten in 6 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rosenborg W44%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Ålesund W33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg W
1.76
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.52

Rosenborg W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 5 away

creates per match

Rosenborg W
2.13
Fortuna Ålesund W
2.40

allows per match

Rosenborg W
0.65
Fortuna Ålesund W
1.40

finishing

Rosenborg W+0.00on par
Fortuna Ålesund W+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg W ↓

Fortuna Ålesund W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Rosenborg W or draw
67%
Rosenborg W or Fortuna Ålesund W
77%
Draw or Fortuna Ålesund W
56%

Winning margin

Rosenborg W wins by 2+
23%
Fortuna Ålesund W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rosenborg W 1+ goals
83%
Rosenborg W 2+ goals
52%
Rosenborg W 3+ goals
26%
Fortuna Ålesund W 1+ goals
78%
Fortuna Ålesund W 2+ goals
45%
Fortuna Ålesund W 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)
57%
Fortuna Ålesund W (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 69 matches

Fortuna Ålesund W away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg W attack 2.13 + Fortuna Ålesund W defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.76

Fortuna Ålesund W attack 2.40 + Rosenborg W defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rosenborg W scores more
44%
level
23%
Fortuna Ålesund W scores more
33%

Rosenborg W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rosenborg W have scored in 11 games running
  • Rosenborg W score first in only 27% of matches
  • 73% of Rosenborg W’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Rosenborg W 3 vs Fortuna Ålesund W 2
  • Both teams score in 73% of Rosenborg W’s matches
  • Rosenborg W win just 48% against the top half (vs 81% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLWW
W
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rosenborg W face Fortuna Ålesund W (Toppserien)

Toppserien returns with Rosenborg W hosting Fortuna Ålesund W. Match starts September 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rosenborg W host Fortuna Ålesund W at Koteng Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.