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Rosenborg W vs Brann W — Toppserien 2021

Rosenborg W
Rosenborg W
Preview
13:00
Brann W
Brann W
10/17/2026ToppserienToppserien · Round 19Koteng Arena
Big match
44%
Brann W
model favours
33%24%44%

Brann W are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Rosenborg W33%
×Draw24%
Brann W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rosenborg W
1.44
Brann W
1.69

Brann W creates 17% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 58 away

creates per match

Rosenborg W
2.13
Brann W
2.72

allows per match

Rosenborg W
0.65
Brann W
0.76

finishing

Rosenborg W+0.00on par
Brann W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg W ↓

Brann W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rosenborg W or draw
56%
Rosenborg W or Brann W
76%
Draw or Brann W
67%

Winning margin

Rosenborg W wins by 2+
15%
Brann W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Rosenborg W 1+ goals
76%
Rosenborg W 2+ goals
42%
Rosenborg W 3+ goals
18%
Brann W 1+ goals
82%
Brann W 2+ goals
50%
Brann W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)
43%
Brann W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 69 matches

Brann W away — creates 2.72, concedes 0.76 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg W attack 2.13 + Brann W defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.44

Brann W attack 2.72 + Rosenborg W defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Rosenborg W scores more
33%
level
24%
Brann W scores more
44%

Brann W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Brann W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Rosenborg W are unbeaten in 6 straight
  • Rosenborg W have scored in 11 games running
  • Rosenborg W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Brann W score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (73% and 73% over 2.5)
  • 73% of Brann W’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
WDLWW
W
DWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rosenborg W face Brann W (Toppserien)

Toppserien returns with Rosenborg W hosting Brann W. Match starts October 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Rosenborg W host Brann W at Koteng Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.